Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:38:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FB 0xfb17…e6fa sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$104 (+2%) realized +$103 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$404per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$389now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$116
world 35% −$1
other 22% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 5 +1.4% -8.3% 40% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 9 +2.2% -7.5% 56% 0% -7.4%
all 10 +7.4% -2.9% 60% 10% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 10% -7.3%
10% -12.2% 10% -16.2%
15% -20.7% 10% -24.3%
20% -28.4% 10% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$9 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.31 per $1 lost it wins $6.31
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$389
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage92d
Avg bet$404
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $388 $389 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 21 $250 −$1 -0%
Spread: Northern Ireland (-2.5) Jun 06 $503 +$27 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31? Jun 04 $498 $0 +0%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 03 $479 +$26 +5%
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? Jun 02 $489 −$17 -4%
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) May 07 $466 +$24 +5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 06 $479 +$2 +0%
Spread: Perth Glory FC (-2.5) Apr 27 $437 +$32 +7%
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? Apr 25 $439 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: BMZ vs Just Swing (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-P Mar 24 $13 +$7 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $388.65 · official $388.65 (match) · 23 history records