Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FB 0xfb13…5946 sports 1100 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21,474 (+2%) realized +$20,010 · open +$1,464
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%590W / 466L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$874per market
Trades / day32.6pace
Fees−$6,139est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$55,062now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,221
7 days+$177
14 days−$787
30 days−$7,708
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$28,108
other 49% +$44,139
world 1% +$4,000
crypto 0% +$438
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +19.4% +8.0% 55% 50% -9.4%
≤30d 303 +4.4% -5.5% 53% 51% -12.3%
≤90d 1056 +4.5% -5.5% 56% 55% -7.6%
all 1056 +4.5% -5.5% 56% 55% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 55% -7.6%
10% -14.5% 52% -16.5%
15% ← realistic here -22.8% 46% -24.5%
20% -30.4% 38% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$1,230) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$624 vs −$753 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$55,062
Realized+$20,010
Unrealized+$1,464
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses590 / 466
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$6,139
Open positions44
Markets (closed)1056 / 1100
History coverage68d
Avg bet$874
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 1056 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,997 $2,998 +$2 (+0%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 77¢ 78¢ $2,772 $2,790 +$18 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 75¢ 76¢ $2,700 $2,754 +$54 (+2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 58¢ 74¢ $2,088 $2,646 +$558 (+27%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 72¢ $2,556 $2,574 +$18 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $1,764 $1,818 +$54 (+3%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,497 $1,499 +$2 (+0%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,498 $1,499 +$1 (+0%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,498 $1,499 +$1 (+0%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,497 $1,499 +$2 (+0%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,497 $1,499 +$2 (+0%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,497 $1,499 +$2 (+0%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,498 $1,499 +$1 (+0%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,498 $1,499 +$1 (+0%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,498 $1,499 +$1 (+0%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,498 $1,499 +$1 (+0%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,498 $1,499 +$1 (+0%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,498 $1,499 +$1 (+0%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,498 $1,498 −$1 (-0%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,497 $1,498 +$1 (+0%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,497 $1,493 −$4 (-0%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,491 $1,493 +$2 (+0%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 92¢ $930 $1,323 +$393 (+42%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 98¢ $1,044 $1,180 +$136 (+13%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 98¢ $984 $1,172 +$188 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 438 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $938 +$329 +35%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,755 +$1,845 +105%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,791 +$1,809 +101%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,074 +$439 +41%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $889 +$1,044 +117%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,574 −$1,548 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3,003 −$2,988 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2,880 +$720 +25%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3,807 −$207 -5%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $3,040 +$560 +18%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,980 −$1,980 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,103 −$1,080 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $900 −$900 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $586 −$586 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,548 −$1,548 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,188 −$1,188 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,728 +$1,872 +108%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $142 +$33 +24%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,160 −$2,160 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,664 +$936 +35%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,368 +$2,232 +163%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $3,456 +$144 +4%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $255 +$150 +59%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3,591 +$9 +0%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $1,034 −$1,034 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $333 +$3,267 +982%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1,433 +$706 +49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,263 +$1,424 +113%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $3,069 −$305 -10%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $864 +$2,736 +317%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $957 −$957 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2,791 −$2,772 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,897 +$703 +24%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $2,628 −$2,628 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,628 +$972 +37%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1,683 −$1,656 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,827 −$1,800 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,574 +$2,026 +129%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2,628 +$972 +37%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2,808 +$792 +28%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,024 +$576 +19%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $3,517 +$83 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,260 +$496 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,538 +$2,062 +134%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1,179 −$1,174 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $612 +$2,988 +488%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,512 +$2,088 +138%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,108 +$1,595 +144%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2,592 −$2,592 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $2,578 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1,791 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,755 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $1,574 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $3,003 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $50 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $41 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $293 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $24 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $9 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $14 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $8 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $25 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $46 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $16 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $24 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $36 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $17 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $37 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $9 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $102 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $24 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $8 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $14 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $85 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 12h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $7 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $24 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55,062.39 · official $55,062.52 (match) · 3034 history records