Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:41:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FB 0xfb13…c4cf other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$14 (+7%) realized +$15 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$10
crypto 27% +$13
sports 5% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +11.5% +0.9% 60% 60% +11.7%
≤30d 5 +11.5% +0.9% 60% 60% +11.7%
≤90d 5 +11.5% +0.9% 60% 60% +11.7%
all 5 +11.5% +0.9% 60% 60% +11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 60% +11.7%
10% -8.8% 60% +1.0%
15% -17.6% 60% -8.7%
20% -25.7% 60% -17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.11 · official $137.95 · 13 history records