Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FB 0xfb12…d1b3 crypto 1010 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,140 (-4%) realized −$2,139 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%320W / 687L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day39.2pace
Fees−$149est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 75d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$4,215
sports 17% −$764
other 1% −$260
world 0% −$120
economics 0% −$47
politics 0% −$36
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -34.5% -40.8% 21% 17% -33.2%
≤30d 387 -12.4% -20.7% 34% 30% -8.6%
≤90d 1007 -23.7% -30.9% 32% 28% -16.7%
all 1007 -23.7% -30.9% 32% 28% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.9% 28% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -37.5% 23% -24.6%
15% -43.6% 18% -31.9%
20% -49.1% 15% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -31% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$21 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$2,139
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses320 / 687
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$149
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1007 / 1010
History coverage75d ⚠
Avg bet$60
Trades / day39.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1007 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 288 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $61 +$31 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$37 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $176 −$17 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$60 +1469%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$8 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $71 +$64 +90%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $45 +$26 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $375 −$17 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $379 −$222 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $217 −$131 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $115 −$56 -49%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $34 −$33 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $48 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $108 +$16 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $619 +$260 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $130 −$8 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $113 −$33 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $135 −$130 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $104 −$99 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $96 −$90 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $106 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $124 −$103 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 15m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi SELL Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 99¢ $92 7h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 65¢ $61 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $16 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $53 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $25 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $30 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $8 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $37 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $59 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $52 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $51 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $64 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 36h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $81 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.51 · official $3.51 (match) · 3500 history records