Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:24:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb11…b42b crypto 1089 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate74%811W / 278L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day28.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$208
14 days+$282
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$123
world 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -2.8% -12.0% 93% 7% -8.4%
≤30d 504 -1.2% -10.6% 82% 23% -9.2%
≤90d 1089 -3.6% -12.8% 74% 31% -9.8%
all 1089 -3.6% -12.8% 74% 31% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 31% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 22% -18.5%
15% -28.8% 16% -26.3%
20% -35.8% 12% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses811 / 278
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1089 / 1089
History coverage72d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1089 Trades
no open positions (141 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $111 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $506 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $843 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $361 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $239 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $709 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $732 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $133 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $91 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $799 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $431 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $795 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $681 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $803 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $799 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $70 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 19 $231 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $362 +$20 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $474 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $733 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $109 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $330 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $86 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $41 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $28 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $22 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3369 history records