Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:43:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

FB 0xfb0f…a3b8 crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$7 (+32%) realized +$6 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%2W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$3per market

Trades / day12.0pace

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-1.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+8.8%	-1.5%	33%	33%	-17.9%
≤30d	6	+8.8%	-1.5%	33%	33%	-17.9%
≤90d	6	+8.8%	-1.5%	33%	33%	-17.9%
all	6	+8.8%	-1.5%	33%	33%	-17.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.5%	33%	-17.9%
10%	-11.0%	17%	-25.7%
15%	-19.6%	17%	-32.9%
20%	-27.4%	17%	-39.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 87% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -9% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.81 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$3

Realized+$6

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses2 / 4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$3

Trades / day12.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	20¢	34¢	$2	$3	+$1 (+68%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$3	-56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$1	+19%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-80%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand?	Jun 16	$2	+$7	+321%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-50%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	SELL Down	1¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	BUY Down	2¢	$5	1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	BUY No	20¢	$2	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	SELL Down	78¢	$6	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$5	7h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand?	SELL Yes	2¢	$0	8h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand?	BUY Yes	11¢	$1	8h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand?	SELL Yes	62¢	$9	8h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	12¢	$1	8h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	23¢	$1	9h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand?	BUY Yes	14¢	$2	10h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.35 · official $3.35 (match) · 12 history records