Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:01:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FB 0xfb0e…0d68 other 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$20
politics 18% −$6
sports 5% −$10
economics 4% −$1
tech 4% −$2
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 -1.4% -10.8% 10% 7% -9.6%
all 113 -1.3% -10.7% 10% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 6% -9.6%
10% -19.3% 6% -18.3%
15% -27.1% 5% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage96d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $160 $161 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $139 $0 +0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $36 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $289 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $269 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $333 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $46 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 01 $83 $0 +0%
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 31 $31 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 30 $46 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $223 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 17 $234 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $414 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $226 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $894 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $240 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 09 $245 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $232 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $239 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $231 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $450 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 25 $241 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 25 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $442 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $246 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $252 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $232 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $227 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $229 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 15 $228 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 15 $497 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $160 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 3d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 3d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 4d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 4d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $139 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 10d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 10d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 11d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 11d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $37 12d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $37 12d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $44 13d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 13d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 16d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 16d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 17d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 18d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 19d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $44 19d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $44 19d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 20d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.61 · official $160.61 (match) · 344 history records