Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:43:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FB 0xfb0c…980a sports 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 340d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$73 (-2%) realized −$90 · open +$17
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%38W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$30
14 days−$160
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$99
other 18% −$177
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -30.3% -36.9% 43% 36% -15.0%
≤30d 50 -19.3% -27.0% 48% 42% -10.1%
≤90d 77 -15.0% -23.1% 48% 44% -9.6%
all 85 -19.5% -27.1% 45% 41% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 41% -11.5%
10% -34.1% 40% -20.0%
15% -40.5% 35% -27.7%
20% -46.3% 28% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$34 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

340d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses38 / 47
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 87
History coverage340d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 60¢ 86¢ $38 $55 +$17 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $25 +$13 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $75 +$41 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$25 +50%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $9 −$8 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $63 −$55 -87%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$14 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $51 +$4 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$26 +102%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $22 −$21 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $62 +$60 +97%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $136 −$134 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $102 +$34 +33%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $70 +$32 +46%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 07 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $28 −$27 -99%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 06 $21 −$21 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $7 +$14 +185%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $31 +$31 +101%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $15 +$15 +98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $9 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $58 −$56 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality Academy vs Prestige (BO3) - United21 Group B May 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) May 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 29 $90 −$90 -100%
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Team Envy (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha May 29 $109 −$109 -100%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming (BO5) - European Pro League Playoff May 29 $80 −$80 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $42 +$26 +60%
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) May 29 $25 +$17 +70%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $213 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: Young Ninjas vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner May 29 $138 −$73 -53%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $264 +$22 +8%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $109 +$167 +153%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $91 +$19 +20%
Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North America: St May 28 $85 +$49 +58%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs NIP - Map 2 Winner May 28 $59 +$26 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 22 $174 +$89 +51%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G May 22 $120 +$55 +46%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs 1WIN (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series P May 21 $169 +$106 +63%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 21 $136 +$33 +24%
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Tundra Esports (+1.5) May 19 $15 +$23 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 60¢ $39 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Refuser 100¢ $39 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 65¢ $25 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $75 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $50 12h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 28¢ $9 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $8 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $63 33h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY 12¢ $5 34h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 72¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 61¢ $50 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 28¢ $15 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 12¢ $5 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 100¢ $54 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 93¢ $51 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $51 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 33¢ $22 4d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $122 4d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 50¢ $62 4d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY Vitality 57¢ $20 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 57¢ $136 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $136 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team Yandex 75¢ $102 9d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $102 9d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $70 9d
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) BUY G2 Esports 54¢ $55 9d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 57¢ $28 10d
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Los Angeles Sparks 40¢ $21 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $21 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.07 · official $55.07 (match) · 165 history records