Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:48:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb09…0f04 sports 495 markets active 0h ago coverage 507d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,115 (-21%) realized −$11,883 · open −$232
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%127W / 366L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,102
7 days−$2,102
14 days−$2,102
30 days−$2,102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$5,589
crypto 35% −$6,467
other 10% −$1,504
politics 0% −$46
world 0% −$90
economics 0% −$28
culture 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-35.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -29.1% -35.8% 30% 30% -32.3%
≤30d 43 -29.1% -35.8% 30% 30% -32.3%
≤90d 43 -29.1% -35.8% 30% 30% -32.3%
all 493 -29.1% -35.9% 26% 25% -31.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.9% 25% -31.3%
10% -42.0% 24% -37.9%
15% -47.6% 24% -43.9%
20% -52.7% 22% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$97 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

507d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$11,883
Unrealized−$232
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses127 / 366
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions2
Markets (closed)493 / 495
History coverage507d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 493 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel Ognjen Milic 18¢ 18¢ $130 $127 −$3 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 27¢ 0¢ $230 $0 −$230 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 143 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $156 +$102 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $287 −$7 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $155 +$81 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $259 +$252 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $160 +$103 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $129 −$125 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $424 −$410 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $234 −$63 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $312 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $109 −$105 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $209 −$27 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $224 −$215 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $311 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $68 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $237 −$225 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $426 −$409 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $338 −$125 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $209 −$200 -96%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $169 −$165 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $156 −$154 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $509 +$414 +81%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $239 +$270 +113%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $228 −$223 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Jun 14 $113 −$111 -98%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $245 +$336 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $144 +$95 +66%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $154 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $126 −$124 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $334 −$330 -99%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $196 +$309 +157%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $143 −$140 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $307 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $232 −$232 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $72 −$70 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 13 $187 +$236 +126%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $197 +$387 +196%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$197 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $202 +$80 +40%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $44 −$43 -98%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $102 +$392 +383%
LoL: FLY vs VKS Sep 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Braves vs. Tigers Sep 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Kent State vs. Florida State Sep 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Arkansas vs. Memphis Sep 20 $60 +$161 +268%
Will Brentford win on 2025-09-20? Sep 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will New England Revolution win on 2025-09-20? Sep 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2025-09-20? Sep 20 $81 −$81 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $258 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 2m
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel BUY Ognjen Milic 18¢ $133 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $280 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 38m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 27¢ $235 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $236 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $511 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $263 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.74 · official $127.74 (match) · 1164 history records