Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:02:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FB 0xfb07…9295 crypto 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$65 (+3%) realized +$64 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate68%54W / 25L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$508now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$18
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% +$7
world 21% +$71
other 14% −$12
politics 6% −$6
sports 6% −$17
weather 5% +$1
culture 5% +$12
economics 3% +$1
finance 2% +$9
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +0.1% -9.4% 90% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 43 +0.6% -9.0% 93% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 60 -19.7% -27.4% 70% 2% -13.3%
all 79 +0.6% -8.9% 68% 11% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 11% -6.3%
10% -17.7% 11% -15.3%
15% -25.6% 9% -23.4%
20% -32.9% 8% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$508
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses54 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)79 / 91
History coverage141d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $80 +$2 +2%
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 21 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $50 +$1 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? Jun 20 $40 +$1 +1%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? Jun 19 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 19 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $90 +$1 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $70 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 16? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +3%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $20 $0 -0%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$6 -56%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Zaļo un Zemnieku Savienība (ZZS) win the most seats in the 2026 L Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $60 +$2 +3%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $70 +$1 +2%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $40 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $30 +$2 +5%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10? Jun 11 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $25 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 9? Jun 10 $25 $0 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? Mar 29 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $5 −$4 -80%
Trump declares election interference national emergency? Mar 29 $10 $0 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 29 $5 +$9 +175%
Will Trump say "Mr. Speaker" during the 2026 State of the Union addres Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Lakers vs. Warriors Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 95¢ $20 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 25h
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY Yes 98¢ $40 25h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 98¢ $40 25h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 97¢ $30 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 2d
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY No 97¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 2d
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY No 97¢ $20 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $40 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $40 3d
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? BUY No 99¢ $40 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 98¢ $30 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 98¢ $30 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 5d
Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? BUY No 92¢ $50 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $40 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $20 5d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $4 5d
Will Zaļo un Zemnieku Savienība (ZZS) win the most seats in the 2026 L SELL No 99¢ $3 5d
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $8 5d
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 99¢ $40 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $507.99 · official $507.99 (match) · 211 history records