Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:48:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb07…8744 crypto 92 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$83 (-4%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%45W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -10.2% -18.8% 54% 54% -1.3%
≤30d 13 -10.2% -18.8% 54% 54% -1.3%
≤90d 40 -8.7% -17.4% 55% 52% -17.9%
all 92 -9.7% -18.3% 49% 48% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 48% -13.8%
10% -26.1% 45% -22.1%
15% -33.2% 40% -29.6%
20% -39.8% 36% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$22 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses45 / 47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)92 / 92
History coverage92d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 92 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 27 $47 +$41 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$19 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 27 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 28 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 28 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 28 $50 +$36 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 28 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 28 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 28 $61 +$37 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 28 $52 +$59 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 28 $18 +$7 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 28 $62 +$56 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 28 $93 +$62 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 28 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 28 $19 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 28 $24 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 28 $28 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 28 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 28 $30 +$25 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 28 $10 +$10 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 15 $31 +$27 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 15 $70 +$61 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 15 $56 +$49 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 27 $43 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 27 $70 +$61 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 27 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 27 $20 +$19 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $48 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $87 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $44 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $25 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $98 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $119 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $66 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 219 history records