Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:16:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FB 0xfb06…5c2d crypto 1047 markets active 3h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$349 (-3%) realized −$349 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%467W / 580L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day35.7pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$36
14 days−$111
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$212
other 18% −$543
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -2.4% -11.7% 47% 46% -5.7%
≤30d 427 +1.4% -8.3% 46% 45% -10.6%
≤90d 1047 +4.4% -5.5% 45% 44% -15.3%
all 1047 +4.4% -5.5% 45% 44% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 44% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.6% 41% -23.4%
15% -22.8% 36% -30.8%
20% -30.4% 31% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$349
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses467 / 580
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1047 / 1047
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day35.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1047 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$3 +45%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$7 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$8 +104%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +55%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$16 +116%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$6 +73%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$7 +164%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$10 +115%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +54%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +103%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$15 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $9 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $0 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $7 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 16h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 16h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 16h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $9 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $0 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 18h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $7 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records