Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

FB 0xfb03…c39b other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$9 (+10%) realized +$11 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip

Net edge+17%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+21.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+34.4%	+21.6%	100%	100%	+21.6%
≤30d	1	+34.4%	+21.6%	100%	100%	+21.6%
≤90d	1	+34.4%	+21.6%	100%	100%	+21.6%
all	1	+34.4%	+21.6%	100%	100%	+21.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+21.6%	100%	+21.6%
10%	+9.9%	100%	+9.9%
15%	-0.7%	0%	-0.7%
20%	-10.4%	0%	-10.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +34% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +34% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$59

Realized+$11

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)1 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$22	$22	+$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	69¢	68¢	$21	$20	−$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score	Yes	49¢	44¢	$18	$16	−$2 (-11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$25	+$9	+34%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$21	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$22	1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$34	1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$19	6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	73¢	$25	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.07 · official $59.07 (match) · 5 history records