Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FB 0xfb03…1a23 sports 195 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,480 (+20%) realized +$6,480 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +144% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +104% what you keep after slip
Net edge+104%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate84%163W / 31L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$394est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$1,276
14 days+$1,744
30 days+$2,763
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$6,321
crypto 1% −$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+121.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +110.3% +90.3% 100% 19% +27.7%
≤30d 88 +202.9% +174.1% 85% 39% +10.4%
≤90d 194 +144.3% +121.0% 84% 35% +6.6%
all 194 +144.3% +121.0% 84% 35% +6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +121.0% 35% +6.6%
10% +99.9% 29% -3.6%
15% +80.6% 23% -12.9%
20% +62.9% 18% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +144% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +60% → late +228% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$33 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×6.98 per $1 lost it wins $6.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$6,480
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses163 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$394
Open positions1
Markets (closed)194 / 195
History coverage82d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Poznan (Doubles): Karol/Serdarusic vs Sobhy/Zakaria Karol/Serdarusic 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bergs vs. Fritz: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Parma (Doubles): Jung/Uesugi vs Jecan/Pavel Jun 17 $34 +$1 +2%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova Jun 17 $7 $0 +1%
Dublin (Doubles): Added/Hands vs Buldorini/Elamin Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Aguilar vs. Almeida: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Aguilar vs. Almeida: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri Jun 16 $48 +$1 +2%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Sara Bejlek vs. Emma Navarro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Bejlek vs Navarro Jun 15 $12 $0 +2%
Set Handicap: Bejlek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) Jun 15 $16 $0 +2%
Set Handicap: Ratti (-1.5) vs Hemery (+1.5) Jun 15 $13 $0 +2%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $14 $0 +2%
Halle Open, Qualification (Doubles): Arends/Pel vs Galloway/Peers Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Set Handicap: Coria (-1.5) vs Kicker (+1.5) Jun 12 $0 +$10 +48467%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Lehecka/Moutet vs Hanfmann/Struff Jun 12 $16 +$1 +6%
ITF Monastir: Victoria Milovanova vs Isabella De Micco Padula Jun 11 $3 +$13 +394%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Leandro Riedi Jun 11 $587 +$3 +0%
ITF Tokyo: Sora Fukuda vs Alan Magadan Jun 11 $259 +$26 +10%
ITF Varnamo: Patrik Munkhammar vs Max Dahlin Jun 10 $630 +$16 +2%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 10 $883 +$239 +27%
ITF Hurghada: Aliesia Reva vs Ashleigh Harvey Jun 10 $325 +$494 +152%
ITF kiseljak: Josip Simundza vs Yannick Baluska Jun 10 $192 +$471 +246%
ITF Los Angeles: Christopher Papa vs Justin Roberts Jun 10 $213 +$14 +7%
Tucuman: Facundo Mena vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Jun 10 $455 +$77 +17%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Mees Rottgering Jun 08 $3 −$2 -58%
Mikrut vs. Nava: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 08 $355 +$17 +5%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Elias Ymer Jun 07 $55 −$54 -98%
Luka Mikrut vs. Emilio Nava: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $267 +$61 +23%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Emilio Nava Jun 07 $408 +$164 +40%
Set 1 Winner: Mikrut vs Nava Jun 07 $155 +$3 +2%
Mikrut vs. Nava: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 07 $328 +$30 +9%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $1,035 −$50 -5%
Foggia (Doubles): Cascino/Radisic vs Gorgodze/Monnet Jun 04 $30 $0 +1%
Tyler (Doubles): Sheehy/Zink vs Imamura/Matsuoka Jun 04 $4 $0 +0%
Tomljanovic vs. Swan: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 04 $41 +$101 +244%
Birmingham: Completed Match: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan Jun 04 $109 +$1 +1%
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan Jun 04 $495 +$104 +21%
ITF Luan: Alexey Aleshchev vs Sam Ryan Ziegann Jun 03 $44 −$43 -96%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $185 −$180 -97%
Duran vs. Napolitano: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 02 $1 +$59 +4756%
Duran vs. Napolitano: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 02 $1 +$60 +4776%
Makarska: Tamara Zidansek vs Polona Hercog Jun 02 $478 +$81 +17%
Zidansek vs. Hercog: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 02 $186 +$3 +2%
Zidansek vs. Hercog: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 02 $96 +$12 +13%
Zidansek vs. Hercog: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 02 $147 +$132 +90%
Yosuke Watanuki vs. Pedro Boscardin Dias: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $0 +$11 +5238%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma (Doubles): Jung/Uesugi vs Jecan/Pavel BUY Jung/Uesugi 98¢ $34 1h
Bergs vs. Fritz: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 1h
Dublin (Doubles): Added/Hands vs Buldorini/Elamin BUY Added/Hands 98¢ $5 2h
Poznan (Doubles): Karol/Serdarusic vs Sobhy/Zakaria BUY Karol/Serdarusic 99¢ $5 2h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova BUY Adela Polakovicova 49¢ $2 3h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova BUY Adela Polakovicova 49¢ $5 3h
Aguilar vs. Almeida: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 11h
Aguilar vs. Almeida: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 12h
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri BUY Jessica Pieri 49¢ $48 23h
Set Handicap: Ratti (-1.5) vs Hemery (+1.5) BUY Ratti 48¢ $13 41h
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 2d
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 2d
Set Handicap: Bejlek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) BUY Navarro 49¢ $2 2d
Set Handicap: Bejlek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) BUY Navarro 49¢ $5 2d
Sara Bejlek vs. Emma Navarro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 49¢ $2 2d
Sara Bejlek vs. Emma Navarro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 49¢ $3 2d
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 2d
Set Handicap: Bejlek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) BUY Navarro 49¢ $9 2d
Sara Bejlek vs. Emma Navarro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 49¢ $2 2d
Set 1 Winner: Bejlek vs Navarro BUY Navarro 49¢ $4 2d
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 2d
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $9 2d
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 2d
Set 1 Winner: Bejlek vs Navarro BUY Navarro 49¢ $8 2d
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 2d
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $4 2d
Halle Open, Qualification (Doubles): Arends/Pel vs Galloway/Peers BUY Arends/Pel 49¢ $4 3d
Set Handicap: Coria (-1.5) vs Kicker (+1.5) BUY Coria $0 4d
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Leandro Riedi BUY Yunchaokete Bu 49¢ $587 5d
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Lehecka/Moutet vs Hanfmann/Struff BUY Lehecka/Moutet 47¢ $16 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.02 · official $5.02 (match) · 1812 history records