Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:25:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FB 0xfb02…0aac crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$22 (+7%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -13.6% -21.8% 50% 44% +5.2%
≤30d 16 -13.6% -21.8% 50% 44% +5.2%
≤90d 16 -13.6% -21.8% 50% 44% +5.2%
all 16 -13.6% -21.8% 50% 44% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 44% +5.2%
10% -29.3% 38% -4.8%
15% -36.1% 38% -14.0%
20% -42.4% 25% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $60 +$36 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $33 −$8 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 24 $22 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $23 +$30 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $9 +$7 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $96 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $60 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $22 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $12 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $62 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $23 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $9 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records