Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:25:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FA 0xfafd…470b crypto 223 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$1,513 (+10%) realized +$1,558 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate72%142W / 55L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$32
world 17% +$25
crypto 14% +$1,421
politics 0% −$1
sports 0% +$2
finance 0% −$6
weather 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -32.8% -39.2% 11% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -25.2% -32.3% 42% 5% -9.8%
≤90d 95 -27.0% -34.0% 61% 4% -9.4%
all 197 -15.4% -23.5% 72% 11% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 11% +1.0%
10% -30.8% 8% -8.6%
15% -37.5% 7% -17.5%
20% -43.6% 5% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$2 · ×5.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.62 per $1 lost it wins $14.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$1,558
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses142 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions25
Markets (closed)197 / 223
History coverage131d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 50¢ 94¢ $45 $84 +$39 (+87%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 50¢ 6¢ $45 $6 −$39 (-87%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 7¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-67%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 84¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 82¢ 91¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch? Yes 40¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 86¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 36¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 86¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 52¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 51¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2,441 −$5 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2,446 −$5 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2,451 −$5 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2,451 −$4 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 30 $2 +$2 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - May 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - May 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 12 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 08 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 08 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - April 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 08 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 08 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 08 $1 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 08 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - April 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $499 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $500 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,436 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2,441 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,441 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2,446 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,446 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2,451 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $2,446 14h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2,451 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Wi BUY 24¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 16d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY No 10¢ $3 19d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 47¢ $2 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 21d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 25d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 25d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 25d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $2 32d
BNB Up or Down - May 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 32d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 32d
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 32d
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 32d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 32d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.05 · official $117.05 (match) · 498 history records