Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:44:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FA 0xfafc…6886 sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized −$40 · open +$49
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$182
7 days−$721
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$1,100
other 48% −$950
world 3% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -20.0% -27.6% 36% 28% -12.4%
≤30d 27 -7.3% -16.1% 41% 33% -1.7%
≤90d 27 -7.3% -16.1% 41% 33% -1.7%
all 27 -7.3% -16.1% 41% 33% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 33% -1.7%
10% -24.1% 30% -11.1%
15% -31.5% 30% -19.7%
20% -38.2% 22% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$111 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage12d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 100¢ $50 $108 +$58 (+116%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 57¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$50 +50%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $76 +$54 +71%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $87 −$85 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $110 +$57 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $233 −$105 -45%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $168 −$18 -11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$97 +473%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 −$50 -49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $203 −$58 -28%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $147 −$2 -2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $706 −$400 -57%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $780 +$14 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $254 −$250 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $902 +$81 +9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $253 +$196 +78%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $682 +$74 +11%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $72 −$70 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $953 +$437 +46%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $55 −$54 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $62 −$60 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $687 −$505 -74%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $445 +$507 +114%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $111 +$209 +188%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $51 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $151 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $31 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $130 9h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $46 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 44¢ $46 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 9h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 9h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 9h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $168 24h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $110 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 29¢ $91 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $31 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $112 28h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? SELL No 75¢ $150 32h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 29¢ $31 33h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 33h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 83¢ $168 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 18¢ $52 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 24¢ $47 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 50¢ $98 46h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.98 · official $198.98 (match) · 66 history records