Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:15:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FA 0xfaf6…fb5f crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$527 (+19%) realized +$527 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%11W / 20L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$567
14 days+$455
30 days+$390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$537
other 37% −$103
sports 2% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -14.2% -22.4% 41% 32% +12.1%
≤30d 31 -7.7% -16.5% 35% 29% +3.2%
≤90d 31 -7.7% -16.5% 35% 29% +3.2%
all 31 -7.7% -16.5% 35% 29% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 29% +3.2%
10% -24.5% 29% -6.6%
15% -31.8% 29% -15.7%
20% -38.5% 26% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$35 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$527
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage20d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $189 +$94 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $52 −$15 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +129%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $103 +$192 +186%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $12 −$11 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $303 −$11 -4%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $408 +$263 +64%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $99 −$98 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $28 −$27 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $97 −$80 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $207 −$148 -72%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$131 +64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $320 +$336 +105%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$9 +483%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $2 $0 -14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $107 −$106 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $18 −$18 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $72 −$55 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $10 39m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? SELL No 33¢ $92 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 30¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? BUY No 30¢ $92 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 25¢ $95 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL No 31¢ $187 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 18¢ $25 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 20¢ $106 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 15¢ $36 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL No 27¢ $94 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 19¢ $52 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 14¢ $53 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL No 3¢ $2 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY No 0¢ $1 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 7¢ $5 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY No 1¢ $5 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? SELL No 47¢ $295 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 15¢ $103 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY No 1¢ $12 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $97 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 63¢ $292 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.89 · official $9.89 (match) · 77 history records