Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:35:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

FA 0xfaf5…e919 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$17 (+11%) realized +$6 · open +$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip

Net edge+5%after slip

Net WR80%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown17%max

Avg bet$20per market

Trades / day5.5pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit12%portable

Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +80%

net ROI/market (all)+9.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+20.8%	+9.3%	80%	80%	+27.8%
≤30d	5	+20.8%	+9.3%	80%	80%	+27.8%
≤90d	5	+20.8%	+9.3%	80%	80%	+27.8%
all	5	+20.8%	+9.3%	80%	80%	+27.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+9.3%	80%	+27.8%
10%	-1.1%	60%	+15.5%
15%	-10.7%	60%	+4.4%
20%	-19.4%	60%	-5.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +41% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +21% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×6.82 per $1 lost it wins $6.82

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$96

Realized+$6

Unrealized+$11

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)5 / 8

History coverage2d

Avg bet$20

Trades / day5.5

Drawdown17%

Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	37¢	46¢	$70	$86	+$16 (+23%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Yes	29¢	34¢	$5	$6	+$1 (+19%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	49¢	20¢	$10	$4	−$6 (-60%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$15	+$2	+12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$15	+$11	+73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$20	+$13	+62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$15	+$9	+57%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	46¢	$51	1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$5	3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	49¢	$10	3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	25¢	$20	15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$15	15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$15	15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$20	16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$15	40h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	21¢	$5	41h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.78 · official $92.62 · 13 history records