Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:09:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FA
0xfaf4…7c5c
politics · 11 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
−$601 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$601 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$54
Realized−$601
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage231d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 1 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$346
7 days−$346
14 days−$346
30 days−$346
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $55 $55 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 −$5 -8%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $401 −$341 -85%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $796 −$72 -9%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $100 −$88 -88%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 16 $100 +$38 +38%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $101 +$42 +41%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $100 +$41 +41%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 27 $517 −$288 -56%
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Oct 27 $193 +$75 +39%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Oct 25 $50 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 59% −$564
other 41% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $56 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 24¢ $56 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $45 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $16 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $60 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $95 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 14¢ $101 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 11¢ $0 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 17¢ $204 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $36 30d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $687 30d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $101 42d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 49d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $19 49d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 49d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 49d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $12 49d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 49d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 49d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 49d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 49d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 49d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 49d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $18 49d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 49d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 49d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 49d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 49d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -46.6% -51.7% 0% 0% -77.2%
≤30d 2 -46.6% -51.7% 0% 0% -77.2%
≤90d 7 -10.0% -18.6% 43% 43% -30.5%
all 10 -9.1% -17.7% 40% 40% -32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 40% -32.0%
10% -25.6% 40% -38.5%
15% -32.8% 40% -44.4%
20% -39.4% 0% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.50 · official $54.50 (match) · 152 history records