Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:05:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfaf4…4464 crypto 593 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (251 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$362 (+1%) realized +$362 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate54%343W / 294L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day250.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days−$314
14 days−$216
30 days−$216
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (251 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 326 -16.3% -24.2% 47% 2% -11.5%
≤30d 637 -4.2% -13.3% 54% 3% -10.1%
≤90d 637 -4.2% -13.3% 54% 3% -10.1%
all 637 -4.2% -13.3% 54% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover250.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 3% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 1% -18.7%
15% -29.2% 1% -26.6%
20% -36.1% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$362
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses343 / 294
Open positions0
Markets (closed)637 / 593
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$48
Trades / day250.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 637 Trades
no open positions (68 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $54 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $49 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $46 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $47 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $42 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $42 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records