Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:21:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FA 0xfaf3…f1bc crypto 1556 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,302 (-3%) realized −$2,302 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1532W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day51.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$7
tech 5% −$24
other 4% −$4
sports 1% −$65
weather 0% +$26
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 167 -1.6% -10.9% 98% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1333 -1.4% -10.8% 98% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 1554 -0.4% -9.8% 99% 0% -9.6%
all 1554 -0.4% -9.8% 99% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 0% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$2,302
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1532 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1554 / 1556
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$48
Trades / day51.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1554 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 10PM ET Down 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10PM ET Down 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 18? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 18? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 166.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 17? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Gibson (+1.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Sobhy/Zakaria (-1.5) vs Karol/Serdarusic (+1.5) Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $73 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? Jun 17 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 17? Jun 17 $61 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $45 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 5h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY No 99¢ $5 13h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY No 99¢ $5 13h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 99¢ $5 13h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 99¢ $5 13h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 166.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 13h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 13h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 100¢ $5 13h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 13h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 16h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 99¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 18h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 99¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.04 · official $84.04 (match) · 3500 history records