Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:49:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfaf1…4be7 world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$32 (-1%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$9
politics 29% +$1
world 23% $0
sports 11% −$19
tech 2% −$1
crypto 0% −$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -6.9% -15.8% 43% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 12 -3.7% -12.9% 42% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 21 -4.0% -13.1% 29% 0% -9.9%
all 44 -10.3% -18.9% 36% 14% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 14% -10.8%
10% -26.6% 9% -19.3%
15% -33.7% 9% -27.1%
20% -40.2% 9% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage531d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $42 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $35 +$2 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $115 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $27 +$1 +3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $278 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $90 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $278 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $9 −$3 -31%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $36 −$2 -6%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Maya Moore make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Apr 07 $4 −$1 -24%
Farcaster airdrop in Q1 2025? Apr 02 $4 −$3 -60%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 21 $4 −$1 -28%
Virginia vs. Wake Forest Mar 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -93%
Utah vs. UCF Feb 26 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Feb 23 $57 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Feb 23 $58 $0 +0%
UMBC vs. UMass Lowell Feb 22 $28 +$28 +100%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 15? Feb 19 $6 +$1 +22%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Feb 18 $2 $0 +9%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Feb 18 $78 $0 +0%
Detroit Mercy vs. Oakland Feb 17 $15 +$2 +15%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-19? Feb 16 $15 $0 -1%
UNC Greensboro vs. Furman Feb 16 $13 +$17 +133%
UC San Diego vs. CSU Bakersfield Feb 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Weber State vs. Montana State Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Jacksonville State vs. Sam Houston State Feb 14 $12 +$7 +57%
Will the match between FC Twente and Bodo Glimt end in a draw? Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Army vs. Loyola Maryland Feb 13 $3 +$3 +100%
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney? Jan 03 $17 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $44 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $43 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $3 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $37 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $35 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $11 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $24 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $35 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $38 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $42 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $1 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $43 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $43 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $43 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $4 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $36 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $26 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $13 9d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 72¢ $37 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 135 history records