trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 16¢ | $6 | $6 | +$0 (+3%) |
| SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? | Down | 55¢ | 55¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-1%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | No | 22¢ | 20¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-7%) |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | Yes | 79¢ | 78¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Spurs | 65¢ | 64¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 11¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 36¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-11%) |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | +22% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $1 | +$1 | +109% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | Jun 12 | $2 | +$2 | +81% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -60% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | BUY Yes | 79¢ | $2 | 2h |
| SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? | BUY Down | 55¢ | $5 | 3h |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY No | 22¢ | $5 | 3h |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | BUY No | 56¢ | $1 | 14h |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | BUY Yes | 54¢ | $1 | 14h |
| Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? | BUY Yes | 40¢ | $1 | 14h |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | SELL Yes | 68¢ | $2 | 15h |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | SELL Yes | 15¢ | $0 | 15h |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | BUY Yes | 15¢ | $6 | 16h |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | BUY Yes | 35¢ | $1 | 16h |
| Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath | BUY Yes | 81¢ | $1 | 18h |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY Yes | 11¢ | $1 | 18h |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | BUY Spurs | 65¢ | $1 | 18h |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | BUY Yes | 35¢ | $1 | 18h |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | BUY Yes | 47¢ | $1 | 18h |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +10.6% | +0.1% | 60% | 60% | +11.0% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +10.6% | +0.1% | 60% | 60% | +11.0% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +10.6% | +0.1% | 60% | 60% | +11.0% |
| all | 5 | +10.6% | +0.1% | 60% | 60% | +11.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +0.1% | 60% | +11.0% |
| 10% | -9.5% | 60% | +0.4% |
| 15% | -18.2% | 40% | -9.3% |
| 20% | -26.2% | 40% | -18.2% |