Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:10:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FA
0xfaea…95a9
weather · 184 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$500 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$535 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$535
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses89 / 91
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)180 / 184
History coverage586d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 4 History 180 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$28
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Yes 28¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on April 21? No 98¢ 0¢ $220 $0 −$220 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) South Africa 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 21? Yes 98¢ 0¢ $225 $0 −$225 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $20 +$18 +89%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $22 +$22 +96%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 21? Apr 21 $96 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 21? Apr 21 $225 −$225 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 21? Apr 21 $200 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 21? Apr 21 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on April 21? Apr 21 $220 −$220 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 21? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 21? Apr 21 $322 −$5 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on April 21? Apr 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on April 21? Apr 21 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on April 21? Apr 21 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 21? Apr 21 $409 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on April 20 Apr 21 $119 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 71°F or below on April 20? Apr 21 $400 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 20? Apr 20 $85 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 20? Apr 20 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 20? Apr 20 $216 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 20? Apr 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on April 20? Apr 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 20? Apr 20 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 20? Apr 20 $288 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 20? Apr 20 $256 −$256 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 20? Apr 20 $476 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 20? Apr 20 $491 +$14 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 20? Apr 20 $218 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ap Apr 20 $376 +$21 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Ap Apr 20 $300 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 19? Apr 19 $49 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 19? Apr 19 $600 +$24 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 19? Apr 19 $621 +$27 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 19? Apr 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on April 18? Apr 19 $200 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 18? Apr 18 $500 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on April 18? Apr 18 $256 +$14 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 18? Apr 18 $481 +$20 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 18? Apr 18 $108 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 18? Apr 18 $262 +$9 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 97% −$563
other 1% +$44
crypto 1% −$8
politics 0% +$24
sports 0% −$29
economics 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $4 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? SELL Yes 99¢ $38 14h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) SELL Haiti 0¢ $0 14h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 14h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Haiti 5¢ $10 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 17h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 3¢ $3 18h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 10¢ $10 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 94¢ $44 39h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 39h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 39h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $22 40h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 6¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 53d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 21? BUY Yes 98¢ $205 54d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $205 54d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 21? BUY Yes 97¢ $21 54d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 21? SELL No 100¢ $21 54d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 21? BUY Yes 98¢ $96 54d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on April 21? BUY No 99¢ $100 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -72.3% -74.9% 14% 14% -32.7%
≤30d 14 -72.3% -74.9% 14% 14% -32.7%
≤90d 171 -16.7% -24.7% 50% 18% -13.9%
all 180 -16.9% -24.8% 49% 18% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 18% -13.7%
10% -32.0% 18% -22.0%
15% -38.6% 15% -29.5%
20% -44.6% 14% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.05 · official $7.05 (match) · 592 history records