Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:36:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfae9…ced4 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$46 (-11%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$71
14 days−$48
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$8
sports 30% −$74
crypto 6% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.7% -11.1% 50% 50% -35.4%
≤30d 16 +6.9% -3.3% 62% 62% -21.4%
≤90d 16 +6.9% -3.3% 62% 62% -21.4%
all 16 +6.9% -3.3% 62% 62% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 62% -21.4%
10% -12.5% 56% -28.9%
15% -21.0% 56% -35.8%
20% -28.7% 38% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$30 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage9d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $29 −$29 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $24 +$17 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $14 +$10 +70%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $32 −$31 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 +$15 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $19 +$26 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $27 +$20 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $33 +$14 +41%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $14 +$6 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$24 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score AND Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2. BUY 28¢ $26 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 4h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $29 29h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $42 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $24 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $14 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $27 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY 17¢ $26 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $26 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 7d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $19 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $27 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $33 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 8d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $25.00 · 30 history records