Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:07:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfae5…0ddc sports 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$786 (+5%) realized +$794 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%52W / 77L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$49
14 days+$612
30 days−$2,810
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$392
other 14% −$114
politics 1% +$89
weather 1% +$46
world 0% +$10
crypto 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 81 -40.0% -45.7% 21% 20% -45.2%
≤90d 107 -19.2% -26.9% 33% 32% -23.6%
all 129 -1.0% -10.4% 40% 38% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 38% -7.2%
10% -19.0% 34% -16.1%
15% -26.8% 34% -24.2%
20% -34.0% 29% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +43% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$82 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized+$794
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses52 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions4
Markets (closed)129 / 133
History coverage179d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tomáš Chorý: 1+ goals No 71¢ 66¢ $99 $92 −$7 (-7%)
Cyle Larin: 1+ goals No 68¢ 65¢ $68 $65 −$3 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $56 $58 +$3 (+5%)
Will Hezbollah win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $27 −$26 -98%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 10 $139 −$138 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $38 −$38 -99%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $233 +$192 +83%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $8 −$7 -91%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $25 +$52 +210%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winn Jun 09 $24 −$23 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $84 −$84 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $29 −$29 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $43 +$71 +165%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $87 −$87 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $141 +$89 +63%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $29 +$16 +55%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $58 +$38 +66%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $57 −$56 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $80 +$720 +898%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $36 $0 -0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 28 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 28 $33 −$32 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 27 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 27 $216 −$165 -76%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 26 $165 −$165 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 26 $28 −$2 -7%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $112 +$240 +214%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 4 Winner May 25 $87 −$85 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 25 $106 −$106 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner May 25 $88 −$87 -99%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 May 23 $20 −$17 -86%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in April 2026? May 23 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season May 23 $54 +$10 +19%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner May 23 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner May 23 $35 +$48 +138%
Game Handicap: ME (-2.5) vs S2G Esports (+2.5) May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Alcaraz vs. Rublev: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 23 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 23 $61 −$61 -100%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 23 $30 −$30 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 May 23 $104 −$104 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner May 23 $84 −$84 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cyle Larin: 1+ goals BUY No 68¢ $69 1h
Tomáš Chorý: 1+ goals BUY No 71¢ $100 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 6d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming Junior 7¢ $4 6d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming Junior 7¢ $3 6d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming Junior 7¢ $1 6d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming Junior 9¢ $9 6d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming Junior 10¢ $10 6d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A BUY HMBLE 7¢ $3 7d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A BUY HMBLE 7¢ $15 7d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A BUY HMBLE 10¢ $10 7d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A BUY HMBLE 10¢ $15 7d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A BUY HMBLE 10¢ $10 7d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A BUY HMBLE 16¢ $5 7d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A BUY HMBLE 16¢ $2 7d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A BUY HMBLE 15¢ $9 7d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A BUY HMBLE 20¢ $50 7d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A BUY HMBLE 20¢ $20 7d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner BUY Partizan Sangal 2¢ $1 7d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner BUY Partizan Sangal 5¢ $1 7d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner BUY Partizan Sangal 5¢ $4 7d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner BUY Partizan Sangal 8¢ $4 7d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner BUY Partizan Sangal 8¢ $0 7d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner BUY Partizan Sangal 8¢ $1 7d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner BUY Partizan Sangal 8¢ $2 7d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner BUY Partizan Sangal 8¢ $1 7d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner BUY Partizan Sangal 8¢ $0 7d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner BUY Partizan Sangal 12¢ $12 7d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner BUY Partizan Sangal 12¢ $12 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.21 · official $221.21 · 819 history records