Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:08:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FA 0xfae4…299f crypto 210 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$34,286 (-11%) realized −$34,283 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate57%119W / 90L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,482per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$430now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,156
7 days−$6,612
14 days−$8,517
30 days−$16,890
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$31,326
other 4% −$4,527
sports 1% +$134
politics 0% +$29
world 0% −$250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -31.1% -37.6% 50% 29% -47.0%
≤30d 45 +10.5% -0.0% 36% 29% -32.2%
≤90d 133 +25.0% +13.1% 59% 29% -18.9%
all 209 +11.4% +0.8% 57% 35% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.8% 35% -20.7%
10% ← realistic here -8.8% 26% -28.3%
15% -17.6% 19% -35.2%
20% -25.7% 15% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$1,300) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$381 vs −$903 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$430
Realized−$34,283
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses119 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)209 / 210
History coverage138d
Avg bet$1,482
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 86¢ 86¢ $432 $429 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $428 +$226 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $4,536 −$1,326 -29%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $58 −$56 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,938 −$1,938 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,413 +$321 +23%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $860 +$130 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 16 $636 −$636 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $643 +$46 +7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,629 −$1,035 -64%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,007 +$314 +31%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,002 +$86 +9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,475 −$247 -17%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,524 −$2,499 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $2,000 +$474 +24%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $774 +$1,226 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $104 +$203 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1,679 −$702 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $7,562 −$82 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $1,913 −$24 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $9,461 −$1,425 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $2,750 +$2,250 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4AM ET Jun 03 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12AM ET Jun 03 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8PM ET Jun 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 02 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 02 $322 −$222 -69%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $513 +$94 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $2,043 +$200 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? May 31 $186 +$173 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30? May 30 $2,300 −$1,183 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 29 $560 −$550 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $665 −$660 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $570 +$142 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23? May 25 $1,344 −$1,311 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25? May 24 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 24 $1,475 +$177 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 24 $96 −$82 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $2,702 −$431 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19? May 22 $9,880 −$2,600 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $6,347 −$2,360 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $3,000 −$1,800 -60%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $890 +$109 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $9,868 −$1,246 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 17? May 17 $4,800 +$3,192 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 86¢ $434 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 99¢ $427 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 75¢ $307 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 75¢ $16 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Down 20¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Down 20¢ $85 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Down 20¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Down 20¢ $12 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Down 20¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Down 20¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Down 20¢ $91 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Down 20¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Down 9¢ $105 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Down 1¢ $21 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 18¢ $593 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 18¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 18¢ $990 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 18¢ $16 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 18¢ $99 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 18¢ $17 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Down 58¢ $1,773 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Down 56¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Down 56¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 46¢ $264 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 46¢ $1,138 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 46¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 46¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Up 50¢ $1,413 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 50¢ $1,413 31h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $58 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $429.72 · official $429.43 (match) · 2204 history records