Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FA 0xfad6…8013 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-2%) realized −$29 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$38
sports 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -19.6% -27.3% 62% 62% -12.2%
≤30d 8 -19.6% -27.3% 62% 62% -12.2%
≤90d 8 -19.6% -27.3% 62% 62% -12.2%
all 8 -19.6% -27.3% 62% 62% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 62% -12.2%
10% -34.2% 25% -20.6%
15% -40.6% 25% -28.3%
20% -46.4% 12% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$101 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage4d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $301 +$55 +18%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $221 +$79 +36%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $143 +$78 +55%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $193 +$41 +21%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? SELL No 100¢ $356 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 84¢ $301 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 100¢ $300 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 73¢ $221 22h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $143 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 100¢ $114 45h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $204 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 82¢ $193 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 88¢ $100 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $100 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.58 · official $197.58 (match) · 15 history records