Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:39:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FA 0xfad6…d8e4 crypto 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$115 (+10%) realized +$115 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%45W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day46.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$46
sports 2% +$2
other 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 +21.3% +9.8% 48% 43% -4.9%
≤30d 93 +21.3% +9.8% 48% 43% -4.9%
≤90d 93 +21.3% +9.8% 48% 43% -4.9%
all 93 +21.3% +9.8% 48% 43% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.8% 43% -4.9%
10% ← realistic here -0.8% 38% -14.0%
15% -10.3% 38% -22.3%
20% -19.1% 33% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$11 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses45 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)93 / 97
History coverage3d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day46.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 93 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$23 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$22 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$30 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $36 +$20 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$15 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$47 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$23 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$19 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$34 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$89 +843%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $76 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$37 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$8 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $3.00 · 202 history records