Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:33:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfad4…379b sports 503 markets active 0h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,785 (-18%) realized −$1,776 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%237W / 262L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$39
14 days−$76
30 days−$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$1,036
weather 14% −$597
crypto 13% −$165
world 4% −$114
politics 3% +$12
other 3% +$70
finance 0% −$6
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +1.7% -8.0% 55% 47% -18.3%
≤30d 154 -20.8% -28.3% 47% 39% -23.0%
≤90d 384 -12.2% -20.6% 51% 44% -22.0%
all 499 -16.1% -24.1% 47% 42% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 42% -26.5%
10% -31.4% 33% -33.6%
15% -38.0% 26% -40.0%
20% -44.1% 19% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$1,776
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses237 / 262
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions4
Markets (closed)499 / 503
History coverage152d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 499 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Down 44¢ 40¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-10%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 20¢ 8¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-62%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 177 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 17 $34 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$7 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 16 $14 −$10 -69%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 15 $24 −$5 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$8 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $36 −$35 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$24 +547%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +122%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Jun 13 $13 −$4 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 12 $24 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $6 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 20¢ $4 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 66¢ $14 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $5 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 63¢ $18 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.30 · official $6.30 (match) · 1300 history records