Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:19:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FA 0xfad3…edc9 crypto 925 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,412 (-10%) realized −$3,610 · open +$198
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%427W / 495L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day102.5pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,386now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$465
14 days−$2,742
30 days−$1,997
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$842
other 16% −$559
sports 6% −$2,081
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 223 -5.8% -14.8% 44% 44% -14.0%
≤30d 922 -0.1% -9.6% 46% 46% -15.1%
≤90d 922 -0.1% -9.6% 46% 46% -15.1%
all 922 -0.1% -9.6% 46% 46% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover102.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 46% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 46% -23.3%
15% -26.2% 45% -30.7%
20% -33.4% 44% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$33 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$2,386
Realized−$3,610
Unrealized+$198
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses427 / 495
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions8
Markets (closed)922 / 925
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$37
Trades / day102.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 922 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $998 $1,187 +$189 (+19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $398 $379 −$19 (-5%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $270 $308 +$38 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $138 $138 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $148 $136 −$12 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $99 $117 +$18 (+18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET Down 46¢ 76¢ $46 $76 +$30 (+64%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $90 $45 −$45 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 7PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 2, 5PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 4PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 2PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$5 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET Jun 24 $11 +$13 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET Jun 24 $46 −$46 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET Jun 24 $8 +$10 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$19 -72%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$5 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET Jun 24 $46 −$46 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11PM ET Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10PM ET Jun 24 $46 +$54 +117%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7PM ET Jun 24 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $657 −$657 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2PM ET Jun 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$17 +117%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $746 +$454 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET Jun 23 $23 +$27 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET Jun 23 $44 −$44 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$10 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET Jun 23 $13 +$15 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$54 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$54 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$7 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET Jun 23 $69 +$31 +45%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$5 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$54 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$54 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$54 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET Jun 23 $27 +$32 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET Jun 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET Jun 23 $60 −$20 -34%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9PM ET Jun 23 $17 +$19 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9PM ET Jun 23 $23 +$27 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $46 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $23 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $43 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,385.86 · official $2,382.43 (match) · 3500 history records