Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FA 0xfad2…3887 weather 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$69 (-2%) realized −$76 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate75%27W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 51% −$28
sports 49% −$45
other 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +7.0% -3.2% 73% 53% -10.4%
≤30d 16 +7.3% -2.9% 75% 56% -10.1%
≤90d 27 -4.3% -13.4% 70% 44% -11.8%
all 36 -4.7% -13.8% 75% 36% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 36% -11.5%
10% -22.1% 11% -20.0%
15% -29.6% 6% -27.7%
20% -36.5% 3% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$38 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses27 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage143d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? No 71¢ 76¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? No 75¢ 76¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $202 −$125 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $201 +$27 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$23 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $102 +$63 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 −$28 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$9 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$7 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $101 +$21 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $254 −$16 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $134 −$27 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $51 +$16 +31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 23? May 23 $36 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 3? May 03 $46 −$43 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 14? Apr 15 $42 +$9 +21%
Rainbow FDV above $70M one day after launch? Apr 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C or higher on February 1 Apr 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 1? Apr 02 $51 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 30? Mar 31 $123 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 30? Mar 30 $62 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 29? Mar 30 $56 +$6 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on March 29? Mar 29 $53 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 21? Mar 21 $48 +$6 +12%
76ers vs. Cavaliers Mar 21 $45 +$1 +3%
Wizards vs. Magic Mar 10 $40 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on February 27? Feb 27 $39 +$2 +4%
Pistons vs. Knicks Feb 20 $1,002 +$9 +1%
Hawks vs. 76ers Feb 20 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on February 18? Feb 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on February 1 Feb 17 $13 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or higher on February 11? Feb 12 $11 $0 +2%
Clippers vs. Rockets Feb 12 $79 −$70 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C or higher on February 10? Feb 10 $12 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 75¢ $51 33m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 72¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 70¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? SELL No 30¢ $59 15h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? SELL No 31¢ $18 15h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $51 24h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $51 24h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $51 26h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $51 26h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $52 28h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $50 29h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $228 39h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $74 40h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $101 40h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $101 42h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $165 43h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 64¢ $51 46h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 58¢ $51 46h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 68¢ $51 47h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 42¢ $22 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $27 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $122 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $52 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.70 · official $156.70 (match) · 92 history records