Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:48:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfad0…490f sports 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$165 (-7%) realized −$165 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%69W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$3
14 days+$65
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$139
crypto 47% −$118
other 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -7.6% -16.4% 46% 43% -10.1%
≤30d 48 -9.2% -17.9% 46% 44% -14.8%
≤90d 157 -9.0% -17.7% 44% 43% -18.9%
all 157 -9.0% -17.7% 44% 43% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 43% -18.9%
10% -25.6% 43% -26.7%
15% -32.8% 41% -33.7%
20% -39.4% 39% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses69 / 88
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)157 / 157
History coverage64d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 157 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$17 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$12 +77%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $4 −$3 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$8 +53%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$10 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$15 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$13 +103%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$12 -61%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $8 −$4 -45%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$12 +112%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $23 −$5 -22%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $7 −$1 -12%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $56 −$44 -78%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $8 −$7 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$2 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +59%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $13 −$4 -33%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +76%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $36 +$21 +57%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $19 −$19 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $35 +$30 +86%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $6 +$6 +95%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $84 +$40 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$4 +74%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $35 +$23 +67%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $45 +$39 +88%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Racing Club de Lens: Both Teams to Score May 17 $78 −$77 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 17 $119 −$41 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 17 $17 −$16 -96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 17 $46 −$42 -92%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 13 $14 −$14 -98%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score May 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 1¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $15 12h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $4 12h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $15 24h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $6 26h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $20 26h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $15 28h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $20 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $12 29h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 20¢ $8 30h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 19¢ $4 31h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 33¢ $8 31h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $6 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 31h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 39¢ $6 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 297 history records