Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FA 0xfacf…cde0 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$14 (+7%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +54% what you keep after slip
Net edge+54%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$17
other 41% $0
weather 6% +$30
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+53.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +70.0% +53.8% 67% 33% -0.2%
≤30d 3 +70.0% +53.8% 67% 33% -0.2%
≤90d 3 +70.0% +53.8% 67% 33% -0.2%
all 3 +70.0% +53.8% 67% 33% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +53.8% 33% -0.2%
10% +39.1% 33% -9.8%
15% +25.7% 33% -18.5%
20% +13.3% 33% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +70% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$17 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage57d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $86 $86 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $105 −$17 -16%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 22, 2026? Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 23? Jun 16 $13 +$30 +225%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $88 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $88 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $105 47h
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $8 56d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 23? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 56d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 23? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.77 · official $85.77 (match) · 8 history records