Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:51:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xface…b456 other 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate50%60W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$18
other 32% $0
sports 15% −$2
politics 12% −$2
finance 1% −$3
tech 1% $0
economics 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
weather 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.7% -10.1% 29% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 31 -1.5% -10.9% 32% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 43 -1.5% -10.9% 26% 0% -9.9%
all 120 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 2% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses60 / 60
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage490d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $82 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $82 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $67 −$2 -4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $84 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $84 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $77 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $155 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $222 +$3 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $28 −$2 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $16 −$1 -7%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $91 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $168 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $490 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $73 −$2 -3%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $79 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $273 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $173 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $89 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 01 $87 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $77 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $176 −$14 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $102 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $94 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $39 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 26 $101 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $108 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $7 −$2 -24%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $96 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $18 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $101 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $81 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $347 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 27 $76 −$1 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 23 $37 −$3 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $52 −$3 -5%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $606 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $608 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $1,186 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $2 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $10 $0 +4%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will X buy TikTok? Jun 04 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 03 $6 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $82 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $82 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $82 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $82 9h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $8 42h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $56 42h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $50 44h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $17 44h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $5 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $5 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $5 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $5 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $9 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $75 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $84 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $84 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $84 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $76 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $77 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $77 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $64 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $66 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $78 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $27 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $6 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 441 history records