Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:21:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FA 0xfacd…031e crypto 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$251 (-8%) realized −$251 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate78%83W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days−$143
30 days−$312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$140
other 12% −$157
sports 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +3.3% -6.5% 100% 0% -5.0%
≤30d 107 -10.6% -19.2% 78% 24% -18.9%
≤90d 107 -10.6% -19.2% 78% 24% -18.9%
all 107 -10.6% -19.2% 78% 24% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 24% -18.9%
10% -26.9% 11% -26.7%
15% -34.0% 3% -33.8%
20% -40.4% 2% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$24 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$251
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses83 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)107 / 107
History coverage29d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 107 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $76 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $43 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $41 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $19 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$4 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $61 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $61 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $60 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 05 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 05 $55 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 05 $56 +$16 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 05 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 05 $88 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 05 $88 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 05 $90 +$33 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 05 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 05 $89 +$17 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 05 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $43 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $43 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $41 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $31 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $31 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $31 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $19 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $19 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $60 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $61 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $60 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $61 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $60 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $60 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $30 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 267 history records