Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:21:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfaca…a8ab other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$278 (+19%) realized +$298 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 25L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$23
14 days+$270
30 days+$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$98
sports 6% +$355
world 0% −$2
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-43.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -65.2% -68.5% 21% 17% -11.9%
≤30d 34 -37.5% -43.5% 26% 24% +9.7%
≤90d 34 -37.5% -43.5% 26% 24% +9.7%
all 34 -37.5% -43.5% 26% 24% +9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.5% 24% +9.7%
10% -48.9% 24% -0.8%
15% -53.8% 21% -10.4%
20% -58.4% 18% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$23 · ×4.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized+$298
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 25
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)34 / 43
History coverage14d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 3 Belgium? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 3 Ghana? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Spain? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-30%)
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
Exact Score: Panama 3 - 3 England? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 3 IR Iran? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $253 +$163 +64%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 26 $68 +$31 +46%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $44 +$11 +24%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $31 +$2 +7%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 3 Iraq? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $81 −$80 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $30 +$36 +117%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 3 Australia? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 3 Haiti? Jun 24 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $69 +$106 +152%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 3 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $97 −$95 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $55 +$357 +650%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $99 +$108 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Panama 3 - 3 England? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 3 Ghana? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $416 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 80¢ $44 2h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes 9¢ $33 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 6h
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 3 IR Iran? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 3 Iraq? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $253 8h
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 29h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $81 29h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 46h
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 46h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 Mexico? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 46h
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 3 Netherlands? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Curaçao 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.49 · official $145.49 (match) · 56 history records