Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:29:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FA 0xfaca…5faf crypto 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate23%16W / 53L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 22% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 48 +7.6% -2.6% 23% 8% -9.5%
all 69 +9.5% -0.9% 23% 10% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 10% -9.5%
10% -10.4% 10% -18.1%
15% -19.1% 10% -26.0%
20% -27.0% 10% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×18.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.79 per $1 lost it wins $5.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses16 / 53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage108d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $179 $179 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $179 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $179 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $179 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $179 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $179 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? May 31 $179 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $179 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 28 $179 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 25 $179 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? May 24 $179 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $179 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $179 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? May 19 $179 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $179 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 17? May 17 $179 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 8? May 08 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? May 07 $179 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 05 $180 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $180 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 22? Apr 22 $180 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 19? Apr 19 $180 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 on April 15? Apr 16 $180 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 15? Apr 15 $180 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $180 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $180 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on April 13? Apr 14 $177 +$2 +1%
Will "Arirang - BTS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Apr Apr 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $175 $0 -0%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $175 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $175 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–2 Apr 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $160 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 11? Apr 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seat Apr 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $181 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $181 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $181 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $181 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $181 $0 -0%
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed by March 31? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $181 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $181 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 29? Mar 29 $181 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 28? Mar 28 $181 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $179 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $179 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $179 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $179 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $179 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $179 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $179 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $179 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $179 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $179 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $179 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $179 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $179 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $179 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $179 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.17 · official $179.40 (match) · 143 history records