Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:15:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfac8…1973 world 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate36%25W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$2
politics 21% $0
other 21% −$2
sports 12% −$12
economics 6% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 26 -0.4% -9.9% 35% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 69 -0.4% -9.9% 36% 1% -9.6%
all 70 -1.8% -11.2% 36% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 1% -10.0%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses25 / 45
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage486d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $56 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $62 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $66 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $27 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $31 $0 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $3 $0 -12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $94 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $64 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $65 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $131 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $43 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $2 $0 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $38 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $68 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $124 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $32 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $51 −$2 -3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $83 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $65 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $35 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $94 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $105 −$1 -1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $69 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $33 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $70 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $3 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $69 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $70 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1 $0 -14%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $111 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $59 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 11 $40 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $5 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $25 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $5 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $25 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $26 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $26 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $32 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $29 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $31 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $17 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $20 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 70¢ $15 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 70¢ $12 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 69¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 69¢ $20 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $6 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $25 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $31 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $2 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 10¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 307 history records