Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:08:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FA 0xfac6…4c62 weather 206 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%190W / 15L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$24
politics 1% −$1
world 1% −$1
sports 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% −$2
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 90% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 47 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 152 -0.1% -9.6% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 205 -0.1% -9.6% 93% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.43 per $1 lost it wins $4.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses190 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)205 / 206
History coverage127d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $84 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 21? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 21? Jun 21 $185 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $197 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $76 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $199 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $107 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 9? Jun 10 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 09 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $192 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 6? Jun 07 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $186 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $191 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 4? Jun 05 $201 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 4? Jun 04 $193 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $188 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 2? Jun 02 $180 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 1? Jun 02 $187 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on May 31? Jun 01 $194 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on May 31? May 31 $132 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on May 30? May 31 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 29? May 30 $189 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 28? May 29 $184 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 28? May 28 $192 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 27? May 27 $184 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on May 25? May 26 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 64°F or higher on May May 24 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $8 26m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $84 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $185 32h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $197 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $70 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $16 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $62 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $109 6d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $44 9d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $199 10d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $107 11d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $94 11d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $105 12d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $111 12d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $140 13d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $25 13d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $9 14d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $117 14d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $192 15d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $139 15d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $186 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.09 · official $92.09 (match) · 455 history records