Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:10:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FA 0xfac4…a531 sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+4%) realized +$11 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%16W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$65
14 days+$34
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$24
other 23% +$23
world 4% +$22
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.9% -10.3% 46% 46% +1.4%
≤30d 40 -18.5% -26.3% 40% 40% -4.4%
≤90d 40 -18.5% -26.3% 40% 40% -4.4%
all 40 -18.5% -26.3% 40% 40% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 40% -4.4%
10% -33.3% 30% -13.5%
15% -39.8% 25% -21.9%
20% -45.7% 18% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses16 / 24
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)40 / 45
History coverage44d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Under 86¢ 97¢ $99 $112 +$13 (+13%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 60¢ 70¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+17%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Under 72¢ 88¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+23%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Under 64¢ 89¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+39%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 27¢ 76¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+180%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 −$16 -78%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 +$17 +338%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $2 +$1 +27%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $5 +$3 +65%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $141 +$21 +15%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$5 +93%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 −$5 -33%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$3 -52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $51 +$31 +61%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$8 +82%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 +$23 +226%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $64 +$26 +42%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$25 -48%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $28 +$14 +50%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $54 +$12 +22%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $54 −$26 -47%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $31 −$31 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $15 +$2 +16%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $32 +$13 +42%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 07 $27 +$5 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $99 34m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $3 53m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 27¢ $1 53m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $15 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 16¢ $4 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 78¢ $2 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 60¢ $5 6h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 90¢ $90 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 18h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 81¢ $50 18h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 39¢ $6 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 24¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $5 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 61¢ $51 29h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 30h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $18 30h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 30h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $2 31h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $0 43h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.90 · official $195.90 (match) · 76 history records