Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:38:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FA 0xfac3…5728 crypto 657 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 147d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,803 (-11%) realized −$11,803 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%404W / 492L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,387
7 days−$8,447
14 days−$9,685
30 days−$9,696
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$6,665
other 6% +$538
world 2% −$598
sports 1% −$1,524
tech 1% −$431
finance 0% −$10
culture 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 290 -79.4% -81.4% 11% 9% -47.8%
≤30d 401 -57.0% -61.1% 26% 22% -35.7%
≤90d 453 -61.6% -65.3% 23% 20% -55.4%
all 896 -24.6% -31.8% 45% 40% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.8% 40% -21.8%
10% ← realistic here -38.3% 36% -29.3%
15% -44.3% 31% -36.1%
20% -49.7% 27% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$86 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11,803
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses404 / 492
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)896 / 657
History coverage148d ⚠
Avg bet$171
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 896 Trades
no open positions (393 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - December 31, 8AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 11PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 7AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 31, 2PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 28, 6AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 28, 6PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 8AM ET Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 28, 1PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 11AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 4PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $129 −$129 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 1AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 31 and 32 million Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 9, 5AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 12AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 5AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 8, 11AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$43 -152%
XRP Up or Down - December 8, 4PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 27, 11PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 28, 9PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 12PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 9AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 26, 9PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 31, 7AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 5AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 8PM ET Jun 16 $79 −$79 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 3AM ET Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 10AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 3PM ET Jun 16 $110 −$110 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 6AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 1PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 3PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 2, 5PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 1AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 1PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 6AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 26, 12PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 8PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 1PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 9AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 10PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 30, 1AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 7AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 1AM ET Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 12AM ET Jun 16 $149 −$149 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 5AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 27, 11PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,636 17m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $306 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $470 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $487 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $1,202 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $1,260 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $660 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $144 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $136 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $23 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $15 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $60 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $50 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $105 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $377 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 34¢ $333 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records