Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:38:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfac3…1bec crypto 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$121 (-5%) realized −$127 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%33W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$185
7 days−$162
14 days−$151
30 days−$280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$208
crypto 22% −$70
other 20% −$70
sports 14% −$177
finance 8% −$50
politics 0% −$5
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +103.7% +84.3% 60% 60% -75.4%
≤30d 28 -15.6% -23.6% 43% 36% -34.9%
≤90d 55 -0.2% -9.7% 60% 47% -16.5%
all 55 -0.2% -9.7% 60% 47% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 47% -16.5%
10% -18.3% 35% -24.5%
15% -26.2% 22% -31.8%
20% -33.5% 18% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$29 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses33 / 22
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)55 / 61
History coverage61d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 61¢ 80¢ $22 $29 +$7 (+32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$16 +253%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +216%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $9 +$23 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $120 +$10 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $101 +$19 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $148 +$18 +12%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22? May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 26 $15 +$12 +76%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 25 $51 +$19 +38%
Kash Patel out by May 31? May 25 $35 +$24 +67%
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 21 $5 $0 +8%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons May 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 2 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 20 $32 +$40 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 20 $134 −$134 -100%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Pr May 20 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 18 $5 −$2 -31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 15 $24 +$8 +32%
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? May 12 $72 +$23 +32%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $13 +$9 +65%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $20 −$18 -90%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $9 +$4 +43%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 03 $59 +$12 +20%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 02 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 02 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 02 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 02 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 02 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 02 $26 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 02 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 30 $84 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 30 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 30 $26 +$6 +24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Apr 30 $51 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 30 $30 +$9 +30%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? Apr 29 $101 +$29 +29%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 29 $81 −$81 -100%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $57 −$57 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $22 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $22 20h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 59¢ $30 34h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 47¢ $61 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? SELL No 99¢ $130 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 91¢ $120 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $120 15d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $93 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $101 20d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? SELL No 95¢ $27 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $70 22d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? SELL No 97¢ $70 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $78 22d
Kash Patel out by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $59 22d
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL Yes $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $6 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY No 53¢ $15 27d
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22? BUY No $3 28d
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? BUY No $3 29d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $4 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.51 · official $86.35 (match) · 166 history records