Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:09:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfac1…d438 other 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-5%) realized −$6 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$23
other 42% +$5
sports 11% $0
weather 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -29.2% -35.9% 33% 33% -20.6%
≤30d 6 -29.2% -35.9% 33% 33% -20.6%
≤90d 11 -15.2% -23.3% 36% 27% -14.0%
all 11 -15.2% -23.3% 36% 27% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 27% -14.0%
10% -30.6% 27% -22.2%
15% -37.3% 27% -29.7%
20% -43.5% 0% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)11 / 18
History coverage80d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $35 +$13 +36%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$11 -53%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$11 +43%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 19 $30 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 4? Apr 03 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 02 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 01 $36 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 01 $27 +$10 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 01 $25 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 11m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 96¢ $48 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 3h
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Christopher O'Connell SELL Christopher OConnell 83¢ $30 17h
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 83¢ $30 18h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $35 23h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY 73¢ $25 25h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY 69¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $8 78d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 4? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 78d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 4? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $12 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $31 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $17 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $25.19 · 34 history records