Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:30:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfabc…2134 sports 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$59,407 (+18%) realized +$59,413 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate59%56W / 39L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$3,486per market
Trades / day50.3pace
Fees−$6,834est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 68d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$12,821
other 9% +$6,150
politics 0% −$200
crypto 0% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -24.4% -31.6% 50% 6% -8.2%
≤30d 37 -24.3% -31.5% 49% 11% -5.9%
≤90d 95 +12.8% +2.0% 59% 37% -4.4%
all 95 +12.8% +2.0% 59% 37% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.0% 37% -4.4%
10% -7.7% 29% -13.5%
15% ← realistic here -16.7% 22% -21.9%
20% -24.8% 21% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$4,226) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +47% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$433 vs −$141 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.4 per $1 lost it wins $4.4
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized+$59,413
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses56 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$6,834
Open positions2
Markets (closed)95 / 97
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$3,486
Trades / day50.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the match end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $128 $106 −$22 (-17%)
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Bangladesh $14 $31 +$17 (+117%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $77 −$77 -100%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas Jun 19 $1,570 +$12 +1%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 18 $868 +$445 +51%
Will England win? Jun 18 $3,737 −$303 -8%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 16 $3,307 +$81 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 14 $8,680 +$169 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $7,077 −$282 -4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $4,381 +$414 +9%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Middlesex Jun 12 $310 −$105 -34%
T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Lancashire Jun 12 $391 −$68 -17%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Derbyshire Jun 12 $9,414 +$192 +2%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire Jun 12 $6,244 +$55 +1%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 12 $6,174 +$248 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan Jun 04 $22,540 +$2,306 +10%
T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Northamptonshire Jun 03 $13,064 +$294 +2%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 03 $6,056 +$452 +8%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Middlesex - Who wins the toss? Jun 03 $108 +$95 +88%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 31 $6,663 +$133 +2%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Derbyshire May 31 $12,694 +$447 +4%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Nottinghamshire May 31 $6,783 −$60 -1%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Warwickshire May 31 $3,845 −$175 -4%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Northamptonshire May 24 $4,686 −$290 -6%
T20 Blast: Glamorgan vs Gloucestershire May 23 $11,801 +$2,469 +21%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Lancashire May 22 $1,252 +$61 +5%
T20 Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 20 $7,352 +$126 +2%
T20 Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand - Wh May 20 $17 +$13 +78%
Exact Score: PSV 0 - 1 FC Twente? May 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Exact Score: PSV 1 - 0 FC Twente? May 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Exact Score: PSV 0 - 0 FC Twente? May 20 $58 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Bangladesh win? May 20 $63 −$63 -100%
Exact Score: Newcastle United Jets FC 0 - 0 Sydney FC? May 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Will PSV win on 2026-05-17? May 20 $1,787 −$279 -16%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $4 $0 -0%
PSV vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 4.5 May 17 $679 −$71 -10%
PSV vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 2.5 May 17 $3 $0 +7%
Will the Liberal Democrats win the second-most council seat elections May 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Pakistan win? May 16 $643 −$193 -30%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand - Com May 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 16 $16,639 +$796 +5%
Will the match end in a draw? May 11 $358 +$421 +118%
Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in th May 09 $74 −$70 -94%
Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5 May 09 $479 +$80 +17%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1,008 +$1,109 +110%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $12 +$63 +519%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 01 $4,226 −$429 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh $10 3m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh $4 5m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh $34 7m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh $1 8m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh $14 8m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh $41 8m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 82¢ $1,038 14m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 71¢ $0 15m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 71¢ $71 15m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 71¢ $2 15m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 71¢ $402 15m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 69¢ $421 15m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 50¢ $989 20m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 42¢ $67 20m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 47¢ $257 20m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 47¢ $2 20m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 45¢ $45 20m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 45¢ $45 20m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 45¢ $25 20m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 45¢ $3 20m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 45¢ $20 20m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 45¢ $45 20m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 45¢ $2 21m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 45¢ $42 21m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 43¢ $2 21m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 43¢ $55 21m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 43¢ $518 21m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 43¢ $204 21m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 56¢ $36 28m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 56¢ $337 28m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.83 · official $136.95 (match) · 3500 history records