Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:57:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfabc…3963 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 444d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate30%13W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$1
sports 19% −$1
other 14% −$2
politics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -2.0% -11.3% 9% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 16 -0.8% -10.2% 19% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 16 -0.8% -10.2% 19% 0% -9.4%
all 43 -6.0% -15.0% 30% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 5% -9.7%
10% -23.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -30.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

444d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses13 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage444d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $48 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $136 −$2 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $8 −$1 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $48 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $23 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $43 +$4 +9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $90 +$1 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $43 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 20 $7 +$1 +16%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5 Mar 15 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 15 $8 −$1 -12%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 14 $166 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? Dec 13 $1 $0 +5%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $1 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Karoline Leavitt be out as White House Press Secretary in Trump's May 06 $17 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $7 −$1 -11%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Abdul Carter? Apr 16 $15 $0 -1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Apr 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 07 $1 $0 -8%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 07 $1 $0 -2%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 05 $1 $0 -20%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 05 $1 $0 -36%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 03 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $48 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $48 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $13 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $43 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $43 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $35 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $7 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $32 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $18 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $30 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $49 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $33 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 11¢ $0 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $14 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $31 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $46 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $43 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 39¢ $43 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $16 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records