Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FA 0xfab8…e996 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$2,862 (+123%) realized +$2,864 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2,730
14 days+$2,730
30 days+$2,730
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$2,820
other 14% −$2
crypto 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +22.6% +11.0% 60% 60% +121.3%
≤30d 5 +22.6% +11.0% 60% 60% +121.3%
≤90d 5 +22.6% +11.0% 60% 60% +121.3%
all 8 +47.9% +33.9% 75% 75% +118.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.9% 75% +118.5%
10% +21.0% 75% +97.6%
15% +9.3% 75% +78.5%
20% -1.4% 75% +61.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +144% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +142% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$489 vs −$52 · ×9.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×28.42 per $1 lost it wins $28.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$328
Realized+$2,864
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage116d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $150 $149 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $103 $103 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $76 $76 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,634 +$2,719 +166%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$34 +67%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $100 +$80 +79%
Rockets vs. Knicks Mar 15 $50 +$33 +67%
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA Mar 15 $50 +$56 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 15 $10 +$9 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $78 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $106 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $154 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 59¢ $51 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $100 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $203 7d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 61¢ $2 12d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $439 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $890 16d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 57¢ $101 23d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $19 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 94d
Rockets vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 60¢ $50 116d
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA BUY USA 47¢ $50 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $327.55 · official $327.55 (match) · 24 history records