Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:46:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

FA 0xfab8…e2a0 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$42 (+22%) realized +$28 · open +$14

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip

Net edge+32%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%4W / 2L

Drawdown23%max

Avg bet$24per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+37.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+51.4%	+37.0%	67%	67%	+28.9%
≤30d	6	+51.4%	+37.0%	67%	67%	+28.9%
≤90d	6	+51.4%	+37.0%	67%	67%	+28.9%
all	6	+51.4%	+37.0%	67%	67%	+28.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+37.0%	67%	+28.9%
10%	+23.9%	67%	+16.6%
15%	+11.9%	50%	+5.3%
20%	+0.9%	33%	-5.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 62% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +42% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +51% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$7 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.96 per $1 lost it wins $3.96

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$104

Realized+$28

Unrealized+$14

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses4 / 2

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)6 / 8

History coverage2d

Avg bet$24

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown23%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	63¢	84¢	$69	$91	+$22 (+33%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	14¢	$22	$13	−$9 (-40%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$39	+$10	+24%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$30	+$15	+50%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	+$20	+197%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$5	+$12	+237%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$4	−$4	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$22	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	63¢	$69	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$39	3h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$30	7h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	33¢	$10	27h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$16	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	47¢	$4	2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$5	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.96 · official $102.87 · 12 history records