Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FA 0xfab7…953a sports 54 markets active 410d ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$129 (+1%) realized +$129 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%26W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$193
other 10% +$261
tech 9% +$469
politics 6% −$413
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 54 +7.5% -2.7% 48% 39% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 39% -8.7%
10% -12.0% 35% -17.4%
15% -20.5% 33% -25.4%
20% -28.3% 28% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$161 vs −$145 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses26 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage116d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 01 $176 −$176 -100%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 28 $413 −$237 -57%
Clippers vs. Pacers Apr 04 $35 −$35 -100%
Knicks vs. Celtics Feb 23 $182 −$147 -81%
Pistons vs. Spurs Feb 22 $189 −$182 -96%
Hornets vs. Nuggets Feb 22 $155 −$155 -100%
Suns vs. Spurs Feb 21 $247 −$214 -87%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jan 28 $108 −$66 -61%
Hawks vs. Timberwolves Jan 28 $186 −$41 -22%
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers Jan 26 $44 +$8 +18%
Bucks vs. Clippers Jan 26 $168 −$168 -100%
Raptors vs. Hawks Jan 26 $396 +$587 +148%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Jan 26 $200 −$100 -50%
Kings vs. Knicks Jan 26 $108 −$63 -58%
Pacers vs. Spurs Jan 25 $277 +$6 +2%
Cavaliers vs. 76ers Jan 25 $201 +$152 +76%
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies Jan 25 $100 +$25 +25%
Trail Blazers vs. Hornets Jan 24 $283 +$114 +40%
Celtics vs. Lakers Jan 24 $315 +$252 +80%
Raptors vs. Hawks Jan 24 $350 +$200 +57%
Heat vs. Bucks Jan 24 $355 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Magic Jan 24 $284 +$142 +50%
Warriors vs. Kings Jan 23 $966 +$377 +39%
Jazz vs. Thunder Jan 23 $350 −$150 -43%
Cavaliers vs. Rockets Jan 23 $290 −$140 -48%
Pistons vs. Hawks Jan 23 $78 +$6 +7%
Wizards vs. Lakers Jan 22 $84 −$84 -100%
76ers vs. Nuggets Jan 22 $83 −$54 -64%
Magic vs. Raptors Jan 22 $70 +$130 +185%
Knicks vs. Nets Jan 22 $11 +$17 +150%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Jan 22 $1,219 +$469 +38%
Bulls vs. Clippers Jan 21 $219 +$465 +212%
Jazz vs. Pelicans Jan 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks Jan 20 $322 −$311 -97%
Wizards vs. Kings Jan 20 $275 −$3 -1%
Suns vs. Pistons Jan 19 $385 +$434 +113%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Jan 18 $1,021 −$988 -97%
Rockets vs. Kings Jan 17 $370 −$230 -62%
Pacers vs. Pistons Jan 17 $180 −$125 -69%
Cavaliers vs. Thunder Jan 17 $225 −$203 -90%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Jan 16 $48 +$50 +104%
Heat vs. Lakers Jan 16 $140 $0 +0%
Celtics vs. Raptors Jan 16 $40 +$170 +424%
Hornets vs. Jazz Jan 15 $85 +$5 +6%
Nets vs. Trail Blazers Jan 15 $111 +$176 +158%
Yoon arrested by January 31? Jan 15 $1,021 +$63 +6%
Thunder vs. 76ers Jan 15 $262 −$131 -50%
Yoon arrested by Friday? Jan 14 $126 +$165 +130%
Heat vs. Clippers Jan 14 $123 +$93 +76%
Warriors vs. Raptors Jan 14 $20 −$13 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 23¢ $24 409d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 23¢ $14 409d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 23¢ $23 409d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 23¢ $26 412d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 23¢ $0 412d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 23¢ $9 412d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 23¢ $7 412d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 23¢ $23 412d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 23¢ $10 412d
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes $63 412d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 23¢ $12 412d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 23¢ $2 412d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 23¢ $25 412d
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes $113 412d
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes $11 420d
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes $1 420d
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes $18 420d
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes $16 420d
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes $285 420d
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes $59 420d
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes $1 420d
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes $0 420d
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes $6 420d
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes $18 420d
Clippers vs. Pacers BUY Clippers 41¢ $35 476d
Knicks vs. Celtics SELL Knicks $35 476d
Knicks vs. Celtics BUY Knicks 26¢ $182 476d
Pistons vs. Spurs SELL Spurs $6 478d
Pistons vs. Spurs SELL Spurs $1 478d
Pistons vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 21¢ $189 478d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 319 history records